'Eee by gum!! It's the Tour, laddies

They wee land of me Shire!

Aye Ho, lads and lassies! It be a week while the wee lads gang up on thee gates of the 'Shire, and it also be time for us to take a kroggie and skeg some winners from the baskit.  I’m chuffed that it’s going to be a reet ride, although the gradley depart b'aht Bradley feels strange! But thees is nowt they tyme for beef, so sup up on yer mashing and go bazzerking with the real champions! 

Tha reet riders, in order of current UCI Worldtour Ranking

1. Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff (Numero Uno)

Contador's impressive return to form this year should ring a clear warning bell for his rivals. His palmares (so far) include - Volta ao Algarve (2nd), Tirreno-Adriatico (GC Winner), Volta a Catalunya (2nd), Vuelta al Pais Vasco (GC Winner) and Criterium du Dauphine (2nd). El Pistolero has been on a podium for every race he started and it certainly looks like the winter training is paying its dividends! He has also managed to stay safe in the peloton, and with trusty lieutenant Roman Kreuziger by his side, the pair looks ready to storm up the Alps and Pyrenees. Impressively, he was the only rider to lock onto Froome's back wheel in the mountains when it counted, and the psychological advantage from the Dauphine could make the difference come July.

3. Rui Costa, Lampre-Merida (up from #15 in 2014)

The reigning world champion made the move to a new outfit this year, possibly to go after stage wins and (very attainable) top-5 Tour finish. His form looks fantastic and his success in Volta ao Algarve (3rd), Paris-Nice (2nd), Tour de Romadie (3rd) and Tour de Suisse (1st) point to an upward graph moving into July.

6. Alejandro Valverde, Movistar 

Valverde has had a phenomenal start to the season, with wins in the Ruta del Sol, Vuelta a Murcia, Roma Maxima, GP Miguel Indurain and Fleche Wallone (wow!).  And those are just the races where he finished on top. Any indications that he may have peaked too early (runner up in Route de Sud and L-B-L) may just be false alarms. AV frequently tormented the peloton on the steep climbs in Ruta Del Sol, and could very well be wanting to make the most of his (probably) last chance to wear the maillot jaune.

7.Michal Kwiatkowski, Omega-Pharma-Quick-Step

Closely following on the heels of AV is the young polish rider from OPQS. With the team duties split between the yellow and green jerseys, we could be in for a repeat of Team Sky's 2012 tour campaign - but who knows, maybe OPQS have found the magic formula for success when fielding riders for more than one jersey. I certainly hope so, at least for Cav's sake! Kwiatkowski has shown glimpses of his enormous talent in previous years tours, as well as putting in steady performances in the pre-tour racing season this year. He is young and has a lot to learn, but is one of my bets to pull off an upset (remember what happened in the last stage of Criterium du Dauphine 2014?). With Quintana basking in his Giro glory and putting in miles for the Vuelta, the young pole would be the prime contender for the maillot blanc, the best young rider's jersey.

15. Christopher Froome, Team Sky

THE overwhelming favorite by a large margin, Froome has demonstrated his singular focus in defending his maillot jaune by largely concentrating on a select few races in the pre-tour season. Froome announced his intentions with a successful defense at the Tour of Oman, but was bested by Rodriguez, Contador, van Garderen and Quintana at the Volta a Catalunya. The Criterium du Dauphine also exposed some cracks in Team Sky's armor, with Froome unable to shake off Contador from his wheel, and then cracking spectacularly on the last stage to finish off the top-10! Whatever the reasons for his "failure" to be #1 in every race he starts, the fact that the gap between him and the rest of the contenders is closing in means good, aggressive racing for the fans. Froome should however, be able to build a good lead into the individual time trial, where he has historically been far superior to his rivals.

19. Andrew Talansky, Garmin-Sharp

  

Yes, the only reason Talansky is here is his 'upset' win in the Dauphine. He has been consistent in his performances pre-Tour, but unfortunately, the Dauphine is his only badge of merit to show. His true test would be in the Alps this year, where he would have to show consistent efforts over multiple days to stay with the leaders. His success in the breakaway (or was it Saxo-Tinkoff's failure to read the situation?) victory will now mean that his every move in the Tour will be observed, countered and neutralized by the big teams. Talansky is now a marked man, and TDF 2014 could very well turn out to be his rite of passage into a mature rider. 

27. Tejay Van Garderen, BMC Racing Team

TJ is welcome to prove me wrong, but I do not think he will affect the leaders much. He could be a force in the mountains, but whether he can hold on to Contador, Froome, Rodriguez when they turn on the screws is big question. In his first Grand Tour as the sole team leader, and without the services of his friend Taylor Phinney, maybe the best TJ could do is learn the ropes of being the team leader and finish in top-5. A top-10 finish is a given, barring any unfortunate incident on the road.

29. Joaquim Rodriguez, Team Katusha

Purito has made all the right noises in the Spring season, and had a good start with Volta a Catalunya (winner) before a crash in the Giro put his Grand Tour hopes on hold. He is expected to start the Tour come July, and would be a force in the mountains. I do not expect him to be on the podium in Paris, but with so many near-misses (3rd in the Tour last year, 2nd in Giro and 3rd in Vuelta 2012 ), he may finally find that extra something to climb up to the first spot!

Other riders on note who promise much but mostly deliver very little - Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Vincenzo Nibali, Tommy Voeckler, Pierre Rolland, Thibot Pinot, the Schleck brothers ... They will each play a role in making the stages exciting but will inevitably fall by the wayside when the going gets tough. 

Next time - a look at the contenders of the maillot verde - featuring the Mozart of the Eleven-tooth Sprocket, the Tourminator, the Gorilla and the Giant :)

'til then,

Ta 'ra